Summarised by Centrist

Political commentator Rob MacCulloch writes that the recent report by New Zealand’s Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care from 1950 to 2019, citing estimates of up to 200,000 abused individuals, has triggered international outrage.

“Given NZ’s population was only 1.9 million in 1950, the report tells us a huge proportion of Kiwis were either abused or abusers and that we’re pretty much a morally bankrupt society,” he writes.

Global headlines, including from CNN and the BBC, reported this figure, though it originates from consultancy Martin Jenkins, which estimated between 36,000 and 256,000 abused, admitting a high level of uncertainty.

The Commission acknowledged these numbers as rough estimates, heavily relying on international data and guesswork due to underreporting.

Critically, Martin Jenkins’ figures were derived using both ‘top down’ and ‘bottom up’ approaches, which produced widely varying results.

Another consultancy, TDB Advisory, reviewed the report, emphasising the inherent uncertainty and potential errors in the estimates.

Despite the Royal Commission presenting these figures as factual, the reality is that the true extent of abuse in care may never be precisely determined.

“I may be making mistakes. But my initial conclusion is that the figure of ‘200,000 being abused’ featuring in the Royal Commission Report… is little more than a guess,” writes MacCulloch.

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