Summarised by Centrist
New Zealand exported nearly $9 billion in goods to the United States last year – its second-largest export market – but Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats are raising questions about future access and profitability.
Meat tops the list, with $2.5 billion in exports, including $1.8 billion in lean beef used to make American hamburger mince.
Experts say US demand for New Zealand beef is unlikely to drop, with cattle numbers at a 70-year low. “They like their hamburgers,” said Infometrics’ Gareth Kiernan, noting that US consumers can’t easily substitute domestic beef for what NZ supplies.
Dairy comes second at $983 million, but the real action may lie in how US–China trade tensions play out. If China stops buying US dairy and beef, New Zealand could benefit by filling the gap, said Westpac’s Kelly Eckhold.
Wine exports – part of the $743 million beverage category – are more vulnerable. Prices are already soft, and US consumers can easily switch to local varieties. “Higher prices for foreign wine… could easily see consumers switch from drinking a Hawke’s Bay syrah to a Californian zinfandel,” Kiernan said.
Other affected sectors include machinery ($684 million), medical equipment ($390 million), and wood, fish, and fruit. Some exporters are considering shifting production to the US, but economists say uncertainty over how long tariffs will last makes major changes risky. “No one wants to be the first person to put their price up,” said Eckhold.
