In brief

Te Pāti Māori voters are evenly divided on Budget 2024 despite leadership’s vehement opposition.

Strong cross-party support for significant tax cuts also contrasts with Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori opposition.

Health and education top funding priorities while far less concern for funding climate change, TV/Film sector, and waste levy.

Wellingtonians are out of touch with national sentiment on budget and tax reductions.

Snap Curia/NZ Taxpayers’ Union poll yields surprises

A snap poll suggests some surprising responses to Budget 2024, with unexpected satisfaction among Te Pāti Māori voters, widespread dissatisfaction with tax reductions (people want more), and regional divides in economic priorities.

Commissioned by the NZ Taxpayers’ Union, the Curia poll canvassed answers from 500 respondents from across the political spectrum and from all regions of the country.

Te Pāti Māori voters more satisfied with the budget than leaders suggest and other surprises

People residing in rural areas and National voters were most supportive of the Budget overall, while Wellingtonians, Green and Labour supporters seemed to be the least satisfied.

Despite Te Pāti Māori’s (TPM) vocal opposition to Budget 2024 their supporters appear divided on its merits. 33% of TPM supporters rated the Budget as “Bad” or “Very bad”, while 37% thought it was “Okay”, and 30% rated it as “Good” or “Very good.”

Yet, indications of a split within the party’s base have not been highlighted in the mainstream media. This is perhaps surprising considering the impression left by recent news coverage that their voter base is firmly behind TPM’s recent Budget day protests.

Additionally, voters across the political spectrum, but especially amongst Labour, TPM and Greens think the level of tax reductions was “Not enough.”

As well, results suggest that Kiwis prioritise health and education while initiatives around climate change, the TV/Film sector, and waste levy increases are at the bottom of the list.

Inflation-adjusted tax brackets and national debt

One of the most striking findings is the strong preference by Kiwis for adjustments of tax brackets to account for inflation (which already occurs for welfare benefits) – 65% support this change and only 18% opposed.

However, for reasons unknown TPM voters are the exception, showing less support for inflation-adjusted tax brackets with 31% supporting and 37% opposed.

Public sentiment on government spending

Concerns about national debt are prominent as 56% believe current debt projections are too high (only 6% think it’s too low). Additionally, nearly half of respondents want the government to decrease spending and around 83% support higher economic growth and only 5% opposed.

However, TPM voters stand out as the only group amongst the major parties’ supporters that are in favour of raising national debt, contrary to broader public opinion.

The poll also reveals a reluctance to borrow more and raise taxes. 60% of respondents do not support additional borrowing. Likewise, 51% of respondents oppose tax increases.

Meanwhile, there is a strong sentiment across all voting groups, particularly Labour voters at 64%, to keep government spending under 30% of GDP.

Disconnect between Wellington and the rest of New Zealand

There is a notable disconnect between Wellington’s priorities and the rest of New Zealand. Respondents from Wellington were more likely to rate Budget 2024 as “Bad” or “Very bad” when compared to respondents across the country.

Wellingtonians also appear more than twice as likely to consider the level of tax reductions “too much” when compared with the rest of New Zealand.

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