Summarised by Centrist
New data from Bulgaria shows a sharp decline in annual deaths since the COVID pandemic – the opposite of trends seen across the United States, the UK, and Western Europe, where death rates remain stubbornly above pre-2020 levels.
While Bulgaria’s population is older and less healthy on average, it also had one of the lowest COVID vaccination rates in Europe.
Only about 30% received the primary series.
“Death isn’t exactly on holiday, but it’s working shorter hours,” writes journalist Alex Berenson of Unreported Truths.
By contrast, countries with high mRNA vaccine uptake, such as the US and Germany, continue to record higher-than-expected deaths. In 2024, the US reported more than 3 million deaths, still significantly above the 2.85 million reported in 2019. Adjusted for population growth, the gap persists. Western Europe shows similar patterns.
Bulgaria had one of the worst COVID death rates in the world and very low vaccine uptake, yet now has death rates below pre-COVID levels. That suggests the expected “pull-forward effect” (where many early COVID deaths reduced later death rates) is playing out in Bulgaria, but not in highly vaccinated countries like the US or UK, where deaths remain elevated.
If long COVID or virus-related damage were the main problem, Bulgaria, with its severe outbreak and low medical resources, should still be suffering. Instead, Bulgaria is doing better than most. That weakens the theory and raises questions about the long-term impact of mRNA-heavy responses elsewhere.
Berenson writes: “The Bulgarian data prove that the answer cannot be ‘long COVID,’ or anything to do with the long-term impact of coronavirus infections. After all, COVID ravaged Bulgaria badly in 2020 and 2021. But once it was gone, it was gone.”
He also questions whether mRNA vaccines delay, rather than prevent, mortality in vulnerable populations.
