Summarised by Centrist
Neither of New Zealand’s major party leaders is particularly popular, and that’s becoming a structural liability, argues former minister Peter Dunne in Newsroom.
Christopher Luxon’s support has fallen steadily since becoming Prime Minister and is now the lowest of any PM under MMP.
Since the election, Luxon has had only one brief improvement, now erased by ongoing dissatisfaction, including from Auckland business leaders who once backed him.
While Labour is still seen as having caused the post-COVID mess, that hasn’t translated into momentum for Chris Luxon. He polls slightly better than Hipkins on favourability but still trails his own party. His support is “off a very low base,” Dunne says.
“Both are detracting from rather than adding to their parties’ support,” he said.
There’s no clear replacement for Luxon.. Nicola Willis has lost traction amid economic uncertainty. Chris Bishop and Erica Stanford are untested at the top level. Replacing Luxon would almost certainly doom National’s 2026 hopes, given historic patterns. The last PM to take office mid-term and then win an election was Peter Fraser, in 1943.
Labour’s options are even thinner. Hipkins faces little internal pressure, but only because no obvious successor has emerged.
Kieran McAnulty is the most mentioned name, but Dunne suggests he looks “too rough around the edges.”
This leaves voters stuck with two underwhelming frontmen heading into a tough election cycle.
