Summarised by Centrist
Economist Dr Martin Lally told The Platform that panic, politics, and flawed forecasts, not rigorous analysis, shaped New Zealand’s response. The economist said government officials “weren’t interested in doing cost-benefit analysis. They were interested in doing what the public seemed to want.”
He rejected the claim that Māori and Pasifika were hardest hit, calling it “the complete opposite of what the data showed.” Citing Ministry of Health figures, he said Māori accounted for just 8% of COVID deaths, and Pasifika 4%, largely because both groups skew younger. “It’s a disease that particularly targets old people,” Lally said.
He slammed forecasting by Shaun Hendy and Michael Plank, whose 2021 projections said 5,000 lives would be lost if New Zealand reopened at 80% vaccination. “Their prediction was too high by a factor of 10,” Lally said, pointing to Plank’s later estimate that the figure was closer to 600 lives saved by going from 80 to 90% coverage.
“There’s no admission that the earlier forecasts were way too high,” he said. “This isn’t a forecasting error. This is just plain dissembling.”
Lally also blamed the media for fuelling public fear. “Even they were surprised at the extent of panic they induced,” he said. “Politicians… looked at the polls. They wanted to get reelected.”
Lally boycotted the first COVID inquiry, calling Blakely “massively conflicted,” but made submissions to the second. “It’s like asking someone to mark their own exam paper,” he said.
