In brief
- Media reports claim Greenland is losing 30 million tonnes of ice per hour, a figure used to stoke climate alarm.
- Meteorology student Chris Martz ran the numbers and found it would take over 11,000 years for Greenland’s ice sheet to fully melt at current rates.
- Sea level rise from this melt? Just 7cm by 2125.
- Context matters—but the media prefers sensationalism.
Are the scary headlines about Greenland’s ice melt misleading?
This time last year, a new scientific study trumpeted, “Greenland losing 30 million tonnes of ice an hour”.
It was, media reported, a figure 20% higher than scientists’ worst fears, a figure so large that the power of gravity on Greenland was apparently getting weaker.
Naturally, a story this juicy wasn’t something to be used only once. As a result media and climate lobbyists have continued to cite Greenland’s “30m tonnes an hour” of vanishing ice, the most recent weeks ago.
But what does it actually mean?
Climate activist Mike Hudema got the schooling of his life last weekend when he posted the Greenland study with scare-caps for emphasis and an alarming animated image (GIF) of icebergs breaking off.
30 million tonnes an hour? The truth behind the big number
Among those taking Hudema to task was meteorology student Chris Martz who’s developed a healthy audience on X by reality-checking climate exaggerations.
Martz pointed out to Hudema that while 30 million tonnes of ice melt per hour sounds like a big number, it’s small compared to the total amount of ice sitting on Greenland.
“The Greenland ice sheet contains an estimated 2.9 million km³ of ice according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).”
A cubic metre of water, Martz explains, weighs one tonne. So a cubic kilometre of water (1000 metres x 1000m x 1000m) weighs one billion tonnes.
How long until Greenland melts? The math might surprise you
The NSIDC figure means Greenland contains 2.9 million billion tonnes of ice, so if it is losing 30 million tonnes an hour, how many years have we got left before Greenland is green again?
“Here’s the math, “ says Martz:
“30 million tons × 24 hr. (1 day) × 365 days (1 year) = -262.8 billion tons/year And, that sounds pretty scary! But, at current rates, it would take more than 11,035 years for the entire ice sheet to melt.
“Now, of course, I have to be honest here. The entire ice sheet doesn’t need to melt for there to be devastating impacts in coastal communities from sea level rise (SLR), which I’d argue is the largest threat posed by climate change in a worst-case scenario. According to NASA, for every 360 Gt (or 360 billion tons) of ice lost, the global mean sea level rises by about 1 millimetre (mm).
“If 262.8 billion tons of ice is lost per year, that would mean sea level rises at a rate of 0.73 mm (~0.03 in) / year from loss of Greenland ice alone. Ignoring Antarctica, this would cause the global average sea level to rise about 1 ft. every ~417.5 years.”
Expressed another way, at its current melt rate Greenland would, at best, add about 7cm of sea-level rise by the year 2125, a hundred years from now.
Climate alarmism vs. reality: what the media won’t tell you
Martz’s deconstruction is a great illustration of how the media and climate activists rely on the dramatic impact of apparently big numbers, without disclosing the much bigger numbers that would provide context.
He finishes by challenging Hudema:
“Uncertainty is a major part of this issue and science in general, but you don’t convey that here. You are 100% certain that we are facing an emergency, but the science doesn’t necessarily suggest so. You may just as well be hyperventilating over nothing, Mike.
“Do we spend tens to hundreds of trillions of dollars to achieve “net zero” emissions and just see what happens, risking national security and energy dominance? Or should we focus on better solutions to mitigate impacts by focusing on zoning in coastal areas, sea wall construction and beach nourishment? I think the latter will prove to be more effective, especially in the 21st century.”
