Summarised by Centrist
Robert Patman, International Relations expert at the University of Otago, warns that New Zealand must adopt strategic independence to navigate the challenges of 2025.
With a global order marked by declining US influence, rising geopolitical tensions, and transboundary crises, Patman argues that New Zealand must bolster defence spending, deepen ties with Australia, and pursue independent policies on AUKUS, Ukraine, Gaza, and climate change.
On AUKUS Pillar II, which involves sharing advanced defence technologies to counter China, Patman notes the risks: “The election of an ‘America First’ president and stern warnings of ‘consequences’ from China… have combined to alter the terms of the AUKUS debate in Wellington.”
Patman argues for the strategic importance of Ukraine, pointing out Prime Minister Chris Luxon’s stance linking Russian aggression to New Zealand’s security. He states, “If New Zealand believes in the importance of restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity… [it] will have to follow the example of Australia and Canada and significantly increase its military aid to help prevent Kiev from being strong-armed into territorial concessions.”
On Gaza, Patman observes that “The National-led coalition’s policy on Gaza seems divided,” as its push for a UN ceasefire clashes with aspirations for closer US alignment. He suggests that New Zealand stop “sheltering behind US positions” on critical issues, warning that this risks undermining the nation’s strategic interests and global credibility.
To maintain its standing as a credible middle power, Patman urges New Zealand to prioritise the Pacific and uphold international rules-based governance, concluding that only an independent foreign policy will safeguard the country’s interests in an increasingly unstable world.
Editor’s note: Robert Patman’s argument for New Zealand to embrace strategic independence is thought-provoking; however, the notion of its “middle power” status may be somewhat exaggerated—it functions more accurately as a minor, though principled, power. While Patman notes the significance of New Zealand’s positions on international issues like Ukraine and Gaza, one might question the extent to which the global community shares his enthusiasm for these viewpoints. Ultimately, New Zealand’s true strength resides in its core values rather than its overall influence on the world stage.
