In brief

• NIWA’s failure to include historic storm data in climate risk analysis is a major story.
• Correct information is needed to prepare for extreme weather such as Cyclone Gabrielle, which caused 11 deaths.
• Investigative journalist Ian Wishart previously warned of NIWA’s incomplete records.
• The government must hold NIWA accountable to prevent future disasters.
• More to follow in a deep dive investigation to be released shortly. 

NIWA: Why does this matter?

This week, Centrist will break arguably the most important story we’ve ever done.

Shouldn’t a failure by a government agency to properly plan for extreme weather events in which 11 people, including a toddler, were killed and billions in damage caused result in at least a formal inquiry – if not prosecution?

There were consequences  in 1995 when 13 students and a DOC manager plunged 30 metres to their deaths on rocks when a viewing platform above Cave Creek gave way. That inquiry saw the resignations of DOC management and the Conservation Minister who wore Westminster accountability for the failings of his department.

Accountability was demanded in 2008 when six students from Elim College and a teacher were swept to their deaths in a flash flood during an outdoor pursuits course run at a gorge in the central North Island by the Sir Edmund Hillary Outdoor Pursuits Centre (OPC). The tragedy was reported in Time magazine.

The gist of the official inquiry was that the weather warning for the day had left out the crucial word “thunderstorms”, and the Ed Hillary guides on the school trip had not been aware of previous fatalities in the gorge – including one of the centre’s own instructors in 1977 – because institutional memory had been lost:

“All of the elements of the 15 April tragedy were foreseeable. Indeed, parallels could be struck between each of the contributing causes of the 15 April incident and some earlier incidents on OPC files. The knowledge that might have prevented the tragedy on 15 April that could have been learnt from past incidents was dispersed as staff left the organization.”

The Hillary Centre was prosecuted and fined $480,000 for its negligence.

More recently, foreseeability has been at the centre of guilty pleas in the Whakaari/White Island tragedy and, latterly, Whangarei Boys High for a drowning on a caving trip during a rainstorm.

Then, on 13/14 February 2023, ex-tropical Cyclone Gabrielle swept across Hawke’s Bay, killing 11 people including a toddler.

While climate change activists, politicians and NIWA were quick to capitalise the tragedy as a climate change superstorm punishing New Zealand for CO₂ sin, some, like investigative journalist Ian Wishart, questioned that narrative and said NIWA had “lost” records of much bigger historic storms which – had they been factored in – would have given a more accurate appreciation of risk.

Back in March 2023, Wishart wrote:

“A NIWA database claiming to document major historic climate events for journalists and researchers has no records of most of New Zealand’s biggest historic storms…The media and politicians rely on briefings and resources from NIWA, including its searchable Historic Weather Events Catalogue that allows quick access to data on “major” storms in the past. Want to know about big storms in Esk Valley? Just punch it in.

“Except, and this is the elephant in the climate change room, most of New Zealand’s biggest storms between 1868 and 1890 (a random period selected to examine) are not actually in there. And if most of the major events from the 1800s are not there, what about the 1900s?

“Why is this critically important? It’s fundamental to “trusting the science” because public and political faith requires science to maintain complete and trustworthy records. A failure to do a proper data search of historical storm records and upload them means the public, politicians, insurers, banks and even the news media are receiving flawed information…”

Wishart was right

Wishart’s warning turned out to be on the money. A couple of weeks ago, the report of the Independent Review of Cyclone Gabrielle flooding in Hawke’s Bay found that major historic flooding events had been missed in NIWA’s climate risk advice to the local regional council, with the result that the council planners didn’t realise just how bad flooding in the region could get. Flood protection systems had been easily overwhelmed, 100,000 people were at risk with no evacuation plan and, as noted, 11 people died.

NIWA has so far refused to answer Centrist questions on the Gabrielle flooding report, choosing instead to get its minister Judith Collins to respond. The problem is the response was an ultimately false statement arguing semantics about which of its two databases NIWA uses for climate research.

As it turns out, we report in our main story that the assurances NIWA provided Collins (and which she published under her own name) are false. That alone is grounds for the Minister to take action against NIWA in our view, but it’s akin to getting Al Capone on tax.

Our message to Judith Collins is simple: 

You did not cause this problem, you inherited it. However it is now in your power to do something about it. An official inquiry has found NIWA’s systemic failure to analyse historical extreme weather events did indeed play a major part in the failed emergency response to Gabrielle flooding and the 11 deaths that resulted. 

As a systemic failure, it is likely to be a ticking time bomb in other regions where NIWA has provided climate risk analysis to councils and government agencies. One of those events may well happen on your watch. 

Why are you protecting NIWA instead of getting to the bottom of this: more lives and more billions of dollars of private property and national infrastructure may be at risk from future extreme events that NIWA has under risked.

Doesn’t the extra tens or even hundreds of billions likely in climate adaptation costs warrant being certain you have the best objective data and analysis?

This is arguably one of the biggest issues facing NZ. The Coalition government must act. Taking action against NIWA’s board and management is only the first step. New Zealanders need to see how deep the systemic failures in our climate agency go.