Opportunity feasts on Labour’s fall

Summarised by Centrist

Labour has suffered a sharp fall in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll as Opportunity surged above the threshold required to enter Parliament.

Labour dropped 3.7 points from last month’s poll to 27.8%, its lowest result in the Curia series since December 2024.

Opportunity climbed 2.8 points to 6.1%, which would give the party eight MPs. The near-matching movements raise the possibility that voters deserting Labour are moving to Opportunity, although leader Qiulae Wong said it was impossible to know.

Wong said the result continued a trend seen over the past nine months and claimed the party was attracting people from across the political spectrum.

National increased just 0.5 points to 31%, while ACT rose to 7.3%. NZ First fell 1.7 points to 9.1%.

Combined support for the three governing parties was 47.4%, about one point lower than last month. That suggests Labour’s decline has not produced a corresponding shift towards the coalition.

On the projected seats, National would receive 40, NZ First 12 and ACT nine, giving the coalition the narrowest possible majority with 61 seats.

Labour would receive 36 seats, the Greens 13, Opportunity eight and Te Pāti Māori two.

The calculation assumes Te Pāti Māori wins only two electorate seats. If it regained all four, it could create a two-seat overhang and expand Parliament to 122 MPs.

The coalition would then have 61 seats, while Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity would also total 61, assuming Opportunity aligned with the opposition.

That could leave Parliament deadlocked and place enormous pressure on Luxon’s decision to rule out working with Opportunity. Wong said she doubted voters believed Luxon would refuse to negotiate if he needed her party to govern.

A separate NZ Herald-Motu Poll of Polls gives Opportunity a 76.6% chance of entering Parliament. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori have just a 3.2% chance of forming a government without it, rising to 30.8% if Opportunity joins them. The model gives the current coalition a 61% chance of retaining power. 

The poll was conducted from 1 to 4 August and carries a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Labour leader Chris Hipkins dismissed it as a “rogue poll”.

Read more at Stuff

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