Officials hid modelling saying LNG would not lower average power prices

Summarised by Centrist

The government says an imported-gas terminal will secure electricity supplies and save consumers $265 million a year. But officials withheld modelling concluding that LNG “shouldn’t materially affect average electricity prices” and that other technologies could provide similar security.

Chief Ombudsman John Allen has ruled that the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment did not have valid grounds for concealing parts of modelling produced by Concept Consulting.

The redacted sections included the report’s executive summary, conclusions and recommendations. MBIE characterised the material as informal, free and frank advice from a rough draft.

Allen disagreed. He found the report was fairly advanced and that officials had already exchanged feedback with the consultancy. Even if a withholding ground had applied, he said the public interest in releasing the information was “very high”.

That matters because the proposed Taranaki LNG facility could cost more than $1 billion. One government assessment put the possible figure as high as $2.7 billion.

The now-released modelling said LNG might lower prices during exceptionally dry years, but largely where several other things had gone wrong. Those included renewable generation failing to keep pace with demand, domestic gas declining faster than expected or all Huntly coal units being unavailable.

It also said coal at Huntly, underground gas storage and additional geothermal, wind or solar generation could provide similar system-security benefits.

Energy Minister Simeon Brown argues none of those alternatives could be operating quickly enough and wants LNG available by winter 2028.

Read more at RNZ and Newswire

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