Labour MP wants house prices down, but party’s health plan needs them to rise

Summarised by Centrist

Labour’s Mt Albert MP Helen White says she wants house prices to fall, putting her at odds with leader Chris Hipkins and potentially undermining the assumptions behind Labour’s capital gains tax.

Labour expects the tax to fund three free GP visits, free maternity scans and free prescriptions. However, its revenue forecasts assume property values will rise by an average of 3% annually.

White was asked about Opportunity’s proposed land value tax and its likely impact on Mt Albert, where party leader Qiulae Wong is challenging her.

“I don’t know,” White replied, before saying she had long wanted house prices to come down.

White said a home cost about three times her household income when she bought in Mt Albert, compared with roughly 10 times today.

“That is not fair,” she said.

Hipkins declined to endorse White’s position, saying Labour did not want “a big explosion in house prices”.

When pressed on whether White’s view represented party policy, he said: “Everyone is entitled to their views.”

Labour finance spokeswoman Barbara Edmonds said she wanted prices to remain stable without large peaks and troughs.

The disagreement exposes a tension in Labour’s tax policy. Its capital gains tax is expected to raise an average of $700 million annually across the forecast period, helping fund health promises costing about $615 million a year.

The forecasts depend on property values increasing. If prices fall or grow more slowly than expected, the tax may not produce enough revenue.

Edmonds has called Labour’s estimates “very conservative”, but previously said the party would “cross that bridge later” if the projected revenue failed to materialise.

White retained Mt Albert by just 18 votes in 2023. She now faces a high-profile challenge from Wong in what could become one of the election’s most consequential electorate contests.

Editor’s note: Mt Albert may be no ordinary electorate this year. The Post editor Matthew Hooton recently argued that Labour could effectively hand government to the left by allowing Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong to win the seat. 

With Opportunity polling at or near the 5% threshold, an electorate victory could bring about five MPs into Parliament under MMP, potentially changing the balance of power. 

Less than three weeks after that calculation was publicly floated, Labour incumbent Helen White has handed her challenger an opening by contradicting her leader on house prices. There is no evidence Labour intends to gift the seat, but Hipkins’ conspicuously lukewarm defence of White will add to the speculation.

Read more at The NZ Herald