Summarised by Centrist

The coalition government would retain power on the latest Talbot Mills poll, but its projected majority depends on Opportunity remaining just below the 5% threshold.

Opportunity rose 1.4 points to 4.7%, putting it “close to the 5% threshold” required to enter Parliament without winning an electorate.

With Opportunity excluded from the seat allocation, National would receive 39 seats, NZ First 15 and Act nine. That would give the coalition 63 seats and “enough seats to form a Government”.

For the last couple of months the Opportunity Party has been promoting a key aspect of their “smart on Crime” policy: “raise the age of the youth court jurisdiction to 25.”

That specific number has now just… disappeared from their website. No statement. No explanation. Nothing.… pic.twitter.com/rOPVxuD1o5
— Suit and tie (@Suitandtie9999) July 24, 2026

However, if Opportunity reached 5%, it would receive roughly six seats and the coalition would fall to around 60, potentially leaving the Qiulae Wong-led party holding the balance of power.

The result is the “third poll in two months” to put Opportunity close to the threshold. A 1News-Verian poll had it on 4.6%, while the recent RNZ-Reid Research poll also put it on 4.7%.

Labour remained the largest party on 33%, down one point. National rose two points to 31%, NZ First held at 12%, Act increased to 7% and Te Pāti Māori remained on 3%. The Greens suffered the largest movement, falling four points to 9%.

The poll was conducted for Talbot Mills’ corporate clients between July 10 and 19 and had a margin of error of 3.1%. Talbot Mills also conducts internal polling for Labour.

Read more over at The NZ Herald

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