Autism diagnoses triple nationwide, with fivefold rise among Māori

Summarised by Centrist

Recorded autism diagnoses in New Zealand more than tripled between 2009 and 2023, with an almost fivefold increase among Māori, according to University of Otago research.

The study examined three national health and disability databases and identified more than 30,800 people diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder.

By 2023, diagnoses had been recorded for 1.3% of children and 0.14% of adults. Rates increased across every age group, gender and ethnicity studied, with no sign of the trend levelling off.

The sharpest increase occurred among Māori. Diagnosis rates, which were initially lower than those of non-Māori in 2009, rose almost fivefold and had overtaken the non-Māori rate by 2023. Higher rates were also recorded in more socioeconomically deprived communities.

Diagnoses remained more common among males, although the rate among females increased faster. Adult diagnoses also continued rising, suggesting many people are only being identified later in life.

Lead researcher Associate Professor Ben Beaglehole said there was unlikely to be a single explanation. Greater awareness, broader diagnostic criteria, improved access to assessments and changing use of healthcare services were all possible factors.

“There may also be broader environmental and societal influences that we don’t yet fully understand,” he said.

The researchers stressed that the increase in recorded diagnoses does not necessarily mean the underlying incidence of autism has tripled. However, they warned demand for health and disability support was likely to keep growing.

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