Will TPM's election strategy work?

Te Pāti Māori is asking supporters for their electorate vote while directing their party vote towards Labour or the Greens, but a mirror strategy is also being promoted on the right.

Both plans aim to use the gap between electorate victories and party-vote entitlement to produce extra seats through an MMP overhang.

The party vote normally determines how many seats each party receives.

A party winning 5% of the party vote is entitled to approximately six seats. If it also wins seven electorates, it keeps all seven, receives no list MPs and creates one additional seat.

Parliament increases in size to accommodate that overhang. The other parties do not lose any of their allocated seats.

That is the opportunity Te Pāti Māori hopes to exploit. A low party vote combined with several electorate victories could add seats beyond the party-vote allocation, while its supporters’ party votes elect additional Labour or Green MPs.

A centre-right strategy attributed to former National leader Don Brash has also begun circulating online.

It urges centre-right voters to give their electorate vote to National but direct their party vote to ACT or NZ First.

Will TPM's strategy work? Why or why not?

READ MORE HERE

If TPM games MMP, it could spell the end of the Māori seats | Centrist

Overhang arms race as left and right eye split-vote paths to power | Centrist