Robinson warns strategic voting could weaken the government National supporters want
September 21, 2026
Summarised by Centrist
The strategy to manufacture extra centre-right seats through strategic voting involves giving National the electorate vote while directing party votes to ACT or NZ First.
If National wins more electorates than its party-vote entitlement, the resulting overhang could increase the bloc’s representation.
Political commentator Claire Robinson’s first objection is that the strategy contradicts National’s own campaign.
“National is asking for as many party votes as possible to keep a strong National at the helm of any new centre-right government.”
Her second concerns whether enough voters would act together to produce the intended result. “It asks for a level of coordination New Zealand has never seen under MMP,” she writes.
Previous tactical arrangements involved particular electorates and clear party signals. This proposal instead requires what Robinson calls “mass, self-organised defiance of National’s own instructions, spread across every electorate in the country”.
Her third objection is that achieving an overhang would not necessarily deliver the kind of government National supporters want.
“National would emerge with fewer list MPs and even less leverage in the next coalition negotiation than it has now.”
That could strengthen ACT and NZ First’s influence over policy and Cabinet positions.
Robinson’s advice is: “Don’t make your choice based on what you think a million other National voters will do.”
Editor’s note: Robinson identifies difficulties and a potential loss of National influence but does not demonstrate that the strategy cannot produce extra seats for a coalition government. National could retain more party votes yet still end up in opposition if its coalition partners lack the numbers. Some supporters might prefer a National-led government with stronger partners to a stronger National sitting outside government.
Political self-interest also comes into play. Prominent National figures, including Nicola Willis and Paul Goldsmith, currently sit as list MPs. If National won enough electorates to create an overhang, it would receive no list seats. Candidates who failed to win an electorate would miss out, regardless of their list ranking. List MPs have a personal stake in National’s party vote. Is protecting it about the best result for the centre-right, their own careers, or both?
The same logic could apply to Labour. Supporters could vote for Labour electorate candidates while giving their party votes to an allied party such as the Greens. For this to work, Labour would need to win more electorate seats than its party vote would normally allow. Its partner would also need to qualify for seats in Parliament. The strategy’s practical uncertainties would remain.
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