Poll puts coalition on 64 seats as National falls below 30%

Summarised by Centrist

A Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll projects National, ACT and New Zealand First would retain government with 64 of Parliament’s 120 seats, despite National falling two points to 29.0%.

ACT rose 3.2 points to 10.5% and would win 14 seats. New Zealand First dropped 0.7 to 8.4% and would take 11, while National would have 39. The governing parties’ combined party vote was 47.9%.

Labour fell 1.9 points to 25.9%, its lowest result in this poll since 2024 and below its result at the 2023 election. The Greens gained 3.8 points to 13.9%. The projection gives the opposition 56 seats, comprising Labour on 35, the Greens on 18 and Te Pāti Māori on three.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins says the party’s internal Talbot Mills polling has Labour above 30%, although he declined to give the exact figure. He also pointed to the recent RNZ-Reid Research poll, which had Labour at 32.2%. Hipkins acknowledged the broader polling trend had been downward and said Labour’s goal was to turn it around.

Te Pāti Māori polled 2.0% and is allocated three seats. The model assumes every current parliamentary party with an electorate seat wins at least one again, and assumes no overhang seats.

The decisive exclusion is Opportunity. It fell 1.6 points to 4.5%, below the 5% threshold, and is assumed not to win an electorate. It therefore receives no seats. Crossing 5%, or winning an electorate, could materially change the arithmetic.

Christopher Luxon remained ahead of Chris Hipkins as preferred prime minister, 21.2% to 16.9%. Curia surveyed 1,000 eligible and likely voters by phone and online over three days. The maximum margin of error was ±3.1 points and 4.1% were undecided. This is a snapshot, not a forecast.

Read more at RNZ | Taxpayers' Union

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