NZ First candidates' 'population replacement' remarks spark controversy

Summarised by Centrist

NZ First deputy leader Shane Jones and Rotorua candidate Billy Brown have drawn criticism for using the language of population replacement to describe immigration trends in New Zealand. 

Both have defended their remarks as criticism of immigration policy rather than claims of a racial conspiracy.

Speaking to Duncan Garner in May, Jones said there was an "enormous thirst and hunger" among New Zealanders to challenge what he called "population replacement theory".

Asked who was being replaced, Jones replied: "Those of us who are indigenous New Zealanders, white and brown."

He argued that successive governments had effectively outsourced decisions about New Zealand's future population to businesses seeking workers.

Brown went further in an October 7 social media post, declaring: "Replacement theory is happening here in New Zealand. Mass migration has been forced down everyday Kiwis' throats by the two old parties."

He promoted NZ First's proposal for a referendum on capping resident visas at 20,000 annually.

Brown subsequently told Newsroom his concern was about New Zealanders being overlooked in employment, housing, infrastructure and public services.

"My criticism is directed at those making these decisions, not individual migrants," he said, explicitly rejecting the suggestion of a secret racial conspiracy.

Massey University emeritus professor, Paul Spoonley, said the terminology echoed the "great replacement" conspiracy theory, which alleges that political elites are deliberately replacing white populations with non-white migrants.

Spoonley said the theory has historically been associated with white nationalist movements and that there was no evidence of such a coordinated replacement plan.

Jones acknowledged that some of his language was "hyperbolic" but defended the need for a national population debate.

Editor's note: Stats NZ figures for the year to August 2026 show a net loss of 38,249 New Zealand citizens, while non-citizens recorded a net gain of 58,752, leaving an overall migration gain of 20,503.

The largest net gains by citizenship were India (+11,732), China (+11,604), the Philippines (+8,205), Sri Lanka (+3,832) and Nepal (+1,958).

Meanwhile, the proportion of New Zealanders identifying as Asian rose from 15.1% in the 2018 Census to 17.3% in 2023.

These figures document significant migration and demographic change, although citizenship is not the same as ethnicity. They do not establish a coordinated plan to replace any population group. Whether immigration levels are appropriate remains a legitimate policy debate.

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