National struggles, but voters aren't turning to Labour
August 24, 2026
Summarised by Centrist
National remains below 30 percent and Christopher Luxon’s approval has fallen to a new low, but Labour has failed to capitalise, slipping to its weakest result in the RNZ-Reid Research series since the election.
The latest poll has Labour on 32.2 percent, down 1.8 points, while National edges up to 29.1 percent. Despite National’s recent leadership turmoil, voters are not shifting decisively back to Labour.
Instead, the smaller parties are holding substantial support. NZ First sits on 11.9 percent, the Greens on 10.2 percent and ACT on 7.7 percent.
Opportunity has also crossed the 5 percent threshold for the first time in the poll, reaching 5.3 percent. That gives it a potentially decisive role in Parliament.
If these results were repeated on election day, National, ACT and NZ First would hold 59 seats, while Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 55. Opportunity’s projected six MPs could therefore determine which bloc forms the next government.
Luxon’s net approval has fallen to -22.9, with 53.2 percent saying he is performing poorly. Hipkins has also slipped into negative territory for the first time as Labour leader, recording a net rating of -3.8.
The wider mood is bleak. Just 30.8 percent of respondents believe New Zealand is heading in the right direction, compared with 51.8 percent who say it is heading the wrong way.
Editor’s note: RNZ gives the Opportunity party prominent billing by framing the poll primarily around its “kingmaker” status rather than the broader collapse in confidence in the two major-party leaders.
The more consequential result may therefore be less that Opportunity has reached 5.3 per cent than that dissatisfaction with National is not translating into renewed enthusiasm for Labour. Instead, support is dispersing across several smaller parties, with Opportunity currently positioned to benefit most from the resulting parliamentary arithmetic.
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