Labour slides, but still edges National; yet coalition still leading

Summarised by Centrist

Labour remains one point ahead of National in two new polls, despite falling sharply from its previous result in both surveys.

However, the National-ACT-NZ First bloc collectively outpolls Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori in both. With the Opportunity Party above the 5% threshold, TOP could determine which grouping forms the next government.

The Anacta poll places Labour on 31%, down four points from August, and National on 30%, up one. The Greens rose four points to 12%, while NZ First fell three points to 10%. ACT reached 8%, TOP 7% and Te Pāti Māori 2%.

On those figures, National, ACT and NZ First total 48%. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori total 45%. If TOP supported the latter grouping, its combined vote would reach 52%.

A separate Freshwater Strategy poll for The Post places Labour on 28% and National on 27%. The Greens are on 14%, NZ First 13%, ACT 9%, TOP 6% and Te Pāti Māori 2%.

That gives the National-led parties a combined 49%, compared with 44% for Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. Adding TOP would take the latter grouping to 50%, although the published figures total 101% because of rounding.

The Freshwater poll shows Labour down seven points since June and National down two. The Greens gained four points, while NZ First and ACT each gained one.

Compared with the 2023 election, National is down 11 points. NZ First is up seven, TOP is up five and the Greens are up two. Labour is one point higher than its 2023 result.

The consistent picture across both polls is a narrow Labour lead over National, stronger support for smaller parties and TOP emerging as a potential kingmaker.

Anacta, formerly Talbot Mills, surveyed 1701 people between September 4 and 10 and reported a 2.4-point margin of error. The company also conducts Labour’s internal polling. No Anacta seat calculation was supplied.

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