Summarised by Centrist
For the first time since April 2023, Labour has edged ahead of National in the latest Taxpayer’s Union-Curia poll, with Labour rising to 30.9% (+4 points) and National slipping to 29.6% (-4.6 points).
This shift gives Labour a narrow lead, translating to 39 parliamentary seats for Labour (+5) and 38 for National (-6).
The Greens gained ground at 9.5% (+1.2), securing 12 seats, while ACT dropped to 10.8% (-2.2), losing three seats to stand at 14. New Zealand First saw a surge to 8.1% (+2.7), adding three seats to reach 10, and Te Pāti Māori held steady with 5.3% and seven seats.
Preferred Prime Minister rankings showed declines for both major leaders, with Christopher Luxon at 24.5% (-2.6) and Chris Hipkins at 15.3% (-4.6). Gains were seen by Winston Peters, up to 8.8% (+3), and Chlöe Swarbrick, rising to 8.5% (+4).
The poll, conducted from 9–13 January with 1000 respondents, has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. It reflects shifting dynamics in New Zealand’s political landscape as parties position themselves for the next election.
