Summarised by Centrist
New Zealand’s political landscape is undergoing major changes as Labour and Te Pāti Māori rise, while National and the Greens face setbacks.
Polling data from 76 public polls (January 2023–December 2024) highlights shifting voter allegiances following the October 2023 election.
National is trending down, with its post-election honeymoon period fading. The Greens, meanwhile, are also in decline.
ACT and NZ First have held steady, but their lack of upward momentum raises questions about their ability to capitalise on government challenges. Winston Peters’ NZ First faces the added pressure of polling behind Te Pāti Māori in some surveys.
Te Pāti Māori has gained traction, particularly following the November hikoi rally, which thrust Treaty issues into the spotlight. Their upward trend perhaps reflects growing support among those disillusioned with traditional parties. Labour, too, has benefited, with its polling improving steadily since the election.
