Five reasons to think carefully before voting Labour

Right now, we’re facing one of the most important elections of our generation. New Zealand governments usually secure a second term, and often a third – so the fact that this government faces the possibility of defeat after just one term tells us how sharply the political winds have shifted.

Some of this reflects on Nationals failure to deliver on many of the things that its 2023 supporters expected – and I will write more on that later this week – but support for the Coalition, overall, has held up, indicating that the issues shaping this election are not driven by the traditional left/right change.

This is confirmed by the fact that Labour has hardly staged a triumphant recovery. It won 26.91% in 2023 and recent polls range from 27.3% to 30.6% - within the margin of error of its 2023 result.

This shouldn’t surprise us when we recall why Labour was thrown out. Remember the ministerial scandals, policy failures, divisive reforms and the chaos of its final year.

Now look at who’s asking for another go. Hipkins still leads a team containing many of the same tired senior figures. Three years in opposition hasn’t produced contrition for its failures in government – nor the wholesale renewal that voters might expect after a longer spell out of office - and Labours policies give little reassurance that Labour has learned the lessons of its defeat.

In providing this warning, my instinct is to go straight to the massive increase in national debt (additional borrowing of almost $100 billion) that took place last time Labour was in charge - but Labour supporters aren’t generally as concerned about apocalyptic deficits or big government as conservative voters are. They end to be much more concerned about good schools, accessible healthcare, decent wages and help through difficult times.

So how might Labour perform in those traditional ‘bread and butter’ areas, if re-elected?

Let’s have a look based on their own words, policies and track record:

1. Labour will put teachers’ unions ahead of your child's education.

Labour’s alignment with teachers’ unions has severely compromised what they are promising in education.

They are proposing to overturn Nationals guarantee of ‘at least an hour on reading, writing and arithmetic every day’ and replace it with vague assurances that the teachers who have delivered the disastrous results of the past 20 years ‘know best’.

You don’t have to like National to accept that they have made consistent teaching of the basics a central requirement and Labour’s emphasis on teacher discretion threatens the certainty parents should expect.

The politics of union support should never outweigh children’s educational interests and your child’s progress is too important to become negotiable after polling day.

2. Labour will bring back race-based preferences.

Labour have already confirmed that they will reinstate race-based targets in government contracting – estimating that approximately $900 million worth of contracts could go to Māori businesses under that policy.

It’s fantastic when any business wins a contract – but it should be based on merit and best value to the public, not what iwi the contractor happens to belong to.

Remember the spectres of Three Waters and the Māori Health Authority, and how far Labour took this approach during its previous government? Those institutions may not return – but the philosophy which created them is alive and well in the Labour caucus.

Willie Jackson has described Labour’s proposed approach to Māori health as involving devolution on a scale “like you haven’t seen before” signalling an intention to double-down on such policies.

Helping people overcome disadvantage is worthwhile. Giving businesses preferential consideration because of their owners’ ancestry undermines equal opportunity.

3. Labour will tax your retirement savings.

Many people have worked, paid their taxes and bought a rental property to supplement their pension. Others have retirement savings tied up in commercial premises.

Labour’s proposed capital gains tax will take 28% of gains on investment and commercial property after its commencement date – meaning that your retirement plans could take a huge hit.

By way of an example - a $200,000 taxable gain means a $56,000 tax bill - money that will no longer be available to support you through retirement.

Labour call this a ‘tax on wealthy speculators’ but it will actually hit tens of thousands of mums and dads who have supported Labour all their lives.

4. Labour will go back to being soft on crime.

The last Labour government pursued a 30% reduction in the prison population and repealed Three Strikes, removing an additional sentencing regime for repeat serious offenders.

In fact, reducing imprisonment became a political objective and it came at the cost of the public who could no longer count on protection against crime.

The coalition restored the Three Strikes regime and strengthened sentencing rules, including a limit on the extent to which Judges could ‘discount’ sentences. Labour has criticised these measures, describing them as creating “injustice and unfairness”, while the party has argued that judges should retain sentencing discretion.

We already know the consequences of these proposed reversals because we saw the huge increases in crime during Labours last term in office. Shop workers, frightened families and repeat victims should never have to carry the consequences of ideology.

5. Labour will target your right to free speech.

Labour’s previous government pursued severe restrictions on free speech and was well down the track toward introducing ‘hate speech’ laws. Remember, under the lefts definition, ‘hate speech’ is not speech that incites violence – it is simply the expression of opinions that the left doesn’t agree with.

As we have seen in other countries, when politicians stretch the words “hate” and “disinformation” to encompass lawful opinions that they dislike, the results are chilling. Such policies are quickly used to justify suppression and criminalise people for the expression of their views.

Criticism of religious beliefs, political ideologies and contentious social policies must remain lawful. ‘Hurt feelings’ cannot confer a right to silence somebody else.

These are, by no means, the only concerns about Labour policy – but they strike at the heart of some of the things that Labour voters regard as being most important. So if you’re considering giving Labour another go – or know of someone who is – perhaps consider these matters before you cast your vote...