Summarised by Centrist
A by-election in Tāmaki Makaurau could lead to Labour gaining an extra seat in Parliament, not by winning more votes, but because of a strange rule in New Zealand’s MMP system.
Te Pāti Māori currently holds the seat after a narrow win in 2023, but it is one of two “overhang” seats. That means the party won more electorates than its share of the party vote should allow. If Labour’s Peeni Henare, a list MP who lost by just 42 votes last time, wins the seat in the by-election, Labour could gain a bonus seat in Parliament.
Here is how it works. If Henare wins and resigns as a list MP before the official election results are finalised, Labour can replace him with the next person on its party list, likely Georgie Dansey. That gives Labour the electorate and a new list MP.
If Henare resigns too late, he simply changes from a list MP to an electorate MP and the total number of MPs stays the same.
This rule has been used before. Winston Peters used it. So did National’s Andrew Bayly. But critics say it undermines MMP’s core idea of proportionality. Te Pāti Māori only got six seats last election because of the overhang, despite getting just 3 percent of the vote. If they lose the seat, their seat count drops and Labour’s rises.
A 2023 review recommended scrapping overhang seats altogether, warning they distort the size of Parliament and can make government formation harder. But the rule is still on the books, and it could quietly shift the balance of power after this by-election.
